Hi Readers,
I am going to talk through my 2024 Academy Awards Predictions for every category. I have tried my best to watch as many films that are available to me and at least one from each category. Unfortunately most of the short animated films and documentary features I have not been able to watch so I will have to use previous award ceremonies/critics voices to make my prediction.
Blue highlight means I have seen the film that the nominee worked on.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
BRADLEY COOPER – Maestro
COLMAN DOMINGO – Rustin
PAUL GIAMATTI – The Holdovers
CILLIAN MURPHY – Oppenheimer
JEFFREY WRIGHT – American Fiction
I think this category is a tie between Paul Giamatti and Cillian Murphy looking at the BAFTA and Golden Globes wins. Colman Domingo has made history with his nomination as the first Afro-Latino in the category but unfortunately has not managed to secure a win yet for his outstanding performance in Rustin. Bradley Cooper was good as Leonard Bernstein but I think his directing made the film what it was. Personally I think either Domingo or Giamatti deserve it the most for their performances.
My prediction is Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
STERLING K. BROWN – American Fiction
ROBERT DE NIRO – Killers of the Flower Moon
ROBERT DOWNEY JR. – Oppenheimer
RYAN GOSLING – Barbie
MARK RUFFALO – Poor Things
There is a strong contrast in this category between the serious historical tales of Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer and then Barbie. Both Robert De Niro and Robert Downey Jr. gave dramatic performances but with no room in the plot for comedy. On the other hand, Ryan Gosling’s Ken in Barbie was a comedy character used to portray male ideals about patriarchy and so on. From how Awards Season has been unfolding, this award is looking like a shoe-in for Robert Downey Jr. but you never know what can happen.
My prediction is Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
ANNETTE BENING – Nyad
LILY GLADSTONE – Killers of the Flower Moon
SANDRA HÜLLER – Anatomy of a Fall
CAREY MULLIGAN – Maestro
EMMA STONE – Poor Things
In my own opinion, I think Annette Bening had a very strong performance in Nyad. The award has been a hand-off between Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone so far. I personally wasn’t sure Lily gave an Oscar winning performance. Carey Mulligan also gave a very strong performance but she is in a very strong year.
My prediction is Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
EMILY BLUNT – Oppenheimer
DANIELLE BROOKS – The Color Purple
AMERICA FERRERA – Barbie
JODIE FOSTER – Nyad
DA’VINE JOY RANDOLPH – The Holdovers
I would love America to win for Barbie but with other strong performances in this category I am not sure she can secure it. Jodie Foster gave a very strong performance while Emily’s was nothing noteworthy to me. Da’Vine Joy Randolph has been sweeping the awards but after seeing the Holdovers, I am not sure what she did was more award-worthy than her fellow nominees.
My prediction is Da’Vine Joy Randolph for the Holdovers.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
THE BOY AND THE HERON – Hayao Miyazaki and Toshio Suzuki
ELEMENTAL – Peter Sohn and Denise Ream
NIMONA – Nick Bruno, Troy Quane, Karen Ryan and Julie Zackary
ROBOT DREAMS – Pablo Berger, Ibon Cormenzana, Ignasi Estapé and Sandra Tapia Díaz
SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE – Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Amy Pascal
I think animation is an often underappreciated category because every shot in the film has to be crafted by people and can take weeks if not months of back and forth. Out of the films I saw, each had a very different animation style so it is hard to compare them with each other. All of them had shots full of detail. I did love Spider-Man but if we’re going off original stories that do not already have a fan base, then I think Nimona and Elemental did well to create whole new worlds. Of course Elemental has had the budget and backing from Disney and their film is an allegory about immigration to the United States which I am sure many people voting in the Academy can relate. Nimona took a leap from the classic medieval tales we know and brought it into a new era with a diverse range of characters. This was based on a graphic novel but is not as well known as Marvel/Disney.
From what I have heard, the Boy and the Heron is a great film. Studio Ghibli always produce high quality work and it is thought this is to be Director Hayao Miyazaki’s last film so I think this one is a very strong contender for best animated feature film.
My prediction is The Boy and the Heron -Hayao Miyazaki and Toshio Suzuki
CINEMATOGRAPHY
EL CONDE – Edward Lachman
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON – Rodrigo Prieto
MAESTRO – Matthew Libatique
OPPENHEIMER – Hoyte van Hoytema
POOR THINGS – Robbie Ryan
I must say when watching the films in this category, the cinematography was not my main focus. Looking back I think the cinematography from Maestro and Oppenheimer stood out from the others. El Conde, the plot was very confusing so even though there were some interesting shots, I couldn’t fully appreciate them. For me, Killers of the Flower Moon was more about the actors and the story line. It was a very long film so my main focus became the plot towards the end. The nominations also match those of the American Society of Cinematography where Oppenheimer prevailed this year.
My prediction is Hoyte van Hoytema for Oppenheimer.
COSTUME DESIGN
BARBIE – Jacqueline Durran
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON – Jacqueline West
NAPOLEON – Janty Yates and Dave Crossman
OPPENHEIMER – Ellen Mirojnick
POOR THINGS – Holly Waddington
I personally thought that the costumes in Barbie were amazing and for such a large cast with a huge number of outfits, the costume team made everyone look impeccable. All of the other films are period pieces so the costumes differ from the bright colours of Barbie. I don’t think Oppenheimer’s costumes were very imaginative or impressive bar Florence Pugh’s looks but nothing had to be made for purpose. The outfits in Napoleon were very intricate and there were a lot of extras that had to be fitted in period dress as well as the many outfits for Josephine. Both Barbie and Poor Things won big at their industry awards but with Poor Things being awarded the BAFTA, they might have closed the deal.
My prediction is Poor Things – Holly Waddington
DIRECTING
ANATOMY OF A FALL – Justine Triet
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON – Martin Scorsese
OPPENHEIMER – Christopher Nolan
POOR THINGS – Yorgos Lanthimos
THE ZONE OF INTEREST – Jonathan Glazer
I’ve only seen two of the nominees from this category. It’s great to see a woman and two films in foreign languages nominated. Martin Scorsese and Christopher Nolan are both very accomplished and Academy praised directors so I think the award is well within their reaches.
My prediction is Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM
BOBI WINE: THE PEOPLE’S PRESIDENT – Moses Bwayo, Christopher Sharp and John Battsek
THE ETERNAL MEMORY
FOUR DAUGHTERS-Kaouther Ben Hania and Nadim Cheikhrouha
TO KILL A TIGER-Nisha Pahuja, Cornelia Principe and David Oppenheim
20 DAYS IN MARIUPOL- Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner and Raney Aronson-Rath
I have only been able to watch one of the nominees in this category as many have not yet been released in the UK. I am pleased that all the films are non-American this year as there are so many events/topics around the world that do not get the promotion or airtime that they need. From chatter online and watching the BAFTA awards, 20 Days in Mariupol is the favourite this year. I did enjoy the Bobi Wine documentary as much as one could given the topic but with the stance that he has taken on gay rights in the past, I don’t think this film is a strong contender in this climate. I don’t support his or Uganda’s views in general but seeing the way the population are treated, I think he has been brave to go against the regime.
My prediction is 20 Days in Mariupol – Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner and Raney Aronson-Rath
DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM
THE ABCS OF BOOK BANNING – Sheila Nevins and Trish Adlesic
THE BARBER OF LITTLE ROCK – John Hoffman and Christine Turner
ISLAND IN BETWEEN – S. Leo Chiang and Jean Tsien
THE LAST REPAIR SHOP – Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers
NǍI NAI & WÀI PÓ – Sean Wang and Sam Davis
There are surprisingly two films made in Taiwan in this category: Island in Between about Taiwan and China’s relationship and Kinmen Islands caught in the middle and Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó about the filmmaker’s two grandmothers and their feelings about life. I thought Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó was very sweet filled with joy about dancing but also discussing the hardships of life and death. Island in Between took on a more serious tone but was still interesting and the footage captured really painted a picture. The Barber of Little Rock showed one man’s effort towards helping his community and how it really made a difference but ultimately my favourite out of the ones I saw was the Last Repair Shop. It was very emotional showing the group of people fixing the instruments for over 80,000 children and helping to provide them with a better life away from crime and their personal obstacles. The pacing and interviews with the employees were very well done and brilliantly tapped into human emotion. The buzz online is talking about The Last Repair Shop and Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó due to the directors’ other works being the front-runners in this category.
My prediction is Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó – Sean Wang and Sam Davis
FILM EDITING
ANATOMY OF A FALL – Laurent Sénéchal
THE HOLDOVERS – Kevin Tent
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON – Thelma Schoonmaker
OPPENHEIMER – Jennifer Lame
POOR THINGS – Yorgos Mavropsaridis
Editing is often an unsung hero of the film world with a good cut often making or breaking the reception of a film. From the films I have seen, The Holdovers had good pacing and was also more digestible at just over 2 hours as opposed to 3 hours plus for the other two. It had great scenery shots cut with the actors and the look and feel of the film including the colour made it feel of the times. I know Nolan likes to shoot on film but the quality of Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon was sharp but did not blend with the story in the same way as the Holdovers.
My prediction is Jennifer Lame for Oppenheimer
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
IO CAPITANO – Italy
PERFECT DAYS – Japan
SOCIETY OF THE SNOW – Spain
THE TEACHERS’ LOUNGE – Germany
THE ZONE OF INTEREST – United Kingdom
I have not seen as much discourse for this category online with many award shows not even having a best International Film category. Given its nomination for Best Picture, The Zone of Interest is a high contender for the win but I really enjoyed Society of the Snow and have written a blog post on it. It was an incredible true story about humanity and survival and I barely noticed it was in Spanish as the emotions and subtitles linked together in my mind. This film has the benefit of being the only one available on streaming so that could help secure it the win.
My prediction is The Zone of Interest
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
GOLDA – Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby and Ashra Kelly-Blue
MAESTRO – Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell
OPPENHEIMER – Luisa Abel
POOR THINGS – Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston
SOCIETY OF THE SNOW – Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí and Montse Ribé
Again Society of the Snow did a great job in this category, transforming the actors into survivalists with sunburn and wild hair growth. There are stronger contenders in this category and while Maestro has some great prosthetics on Bradley Cooper and won in its industry awards, I think Poor Things winning the BAFTA is more influential.
My prediction is Poor Things – Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
AMERICAN FICTION – Laura Karpman
INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY – John Williams
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON – Robbie Robertson
OPPENHEIMER – Ludwig Göransson
POOR THINGS – Jerskin Fendrix
It is great to see 92 year old John Williams nominated for the final Indiana Jones film which is one of the franchises that he is most known for. Ludwig Göransson has won the BAFTA and Golden Globe and is generally well known in the music and film score circles. He has had previous nominations in the music categories at the Oscars as well.
My prediction is Ludwig Göransson for Oppenheimer
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
THE FIRE INSIDE – from Flamin’ Hot; Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
I’M JUST KEN – from Barbie; Music and Lyric by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt
IT NEVER WENT AWAY – from American Symphony; Music and Lyric by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson
WAHZHAZHE (A SONG FOR MY PEOPLE) – from Killers of the Flower Moon; Music and Lyric by Scott George
WHAT WAS I MADE FOR? – from Barbie; Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell
I am not a big music person but I just re-listened to all the songs and they all have their own strengths. Dianne Warren who composed The Fire Inside is a seasoned nominee in this category having been nominated the last 8 years in a row. Jon Batiste’s song was very emotionally powerful; after watching the documentary, I can understand what he has been going through. Both the songs from Barbie have different tones, I’m Just Ken is playful and a metaphor for the reverse sexism in Barbieland. Billie Eilish’s song has so much heart and when you listen the lyrics it relates to how Barbie feels but also how everyone can feel non-existent and without a purpose. The song from Killers of the Flower Moon is important to the story but as its in a different language it personally didn’t impact me as much as the others. It has a steady rhythm but nothing stands out.
My prediction is Billie Eilish & Finneas O’Connell with What Was I Made For? from Barbie
BEST PICTURE
AMERICAN FICTION – Ben LeClair, Nikos Karamigios, Cord Jefferson and Jermaine Johnson, Producers
ANATOMY OF A FALL – Marie-Ange Luciani and David Thion, Producers
BARBIE – David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley and Robbie Brenner, Producers
THE HOLDOVERS – Mark Johnson, Producer
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON – Dan Friedkin, Bradley Thomas, Martin Scorsese and Daniel Lupi, Producers
MAESTRO – Bradley Cooper, Steven Spielberg, Fred Berner, Amy Durning and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers
OPPENHEIMER – Emma Thomas, Charles Roven and Christopher Nolan, Producers
PAST LIVES – David Hinojosa, Christine Vachon and Pamela Koffler, Producers
POOR THINGS – Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone, Producers
THE ZONE OF INTEREST – James Wilson, Producer
This is the most sought after prize in Hollywood. With Asian led films winning in the last few years (Parasite, Everything Everywhere All At Once) along with Chloe Zhao’s Nomadland and then a deaf cast leading CODA last year, it seems this category is awarding diversity and ambition. American Fiction and Past Lives fit this mould with diverse casts along with Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest being non-English. This category is not really represented in the same way at other award shows. The BAFTAs have best British/International film, the Globes split by genre so there is always a lot of discourse around who will receive the prize this year. Personally I think Barbie, The Holdovers and Maestro were produced very well creating a real world for the characters and telling interesting stories. These films did all have white protagonists and were in English so it would be great to see something more diverse lead the way.
My prediction is Oppenheimer as it has been a well-loved film this year and Christopher Nolan is a very well-respected director.
PRODUCTION DESIGN
BARBIE – Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON – Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis
NAPOLEON – Production Design: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Elli Griff
OPPENHEIMER – Production Design: Ruth De Jong; Set Decoration: Claire Kaufman
POOR THINGS – Production Design: James Price and Shona Heath; Set Decoration: Zsuzsa Mihalek
With the same nominees for Production Design as Costume, its clear that these films made an impact visually on audiences. Barbie famously created a giant Barbieland set, causing a global pink paint shortage along the way. I think the scale and locations of Napoleon have been underestimated as its currently predicted last to win. Poor Things once again won the BAFTA and is the top prediction. Oppenheimer built a lot of its sets including a quickly put together Oval Office and a desert town.
My prediction is Poor Things – Production Design: James Price and Shona Heath; Set Decoration: Zsuzsa Mihalek
ANIMATED SHORT FILM
LETTER TO A PIG – Tal Kantor and Amit R. Gicelter
NINETY-FIVE SENSES – Jerusha Hess and Jared Hess
OUR UNIFORM – Yegane Moghaddam
PACHYDERME – Stéphanie Clément and Marc Rius
WAR IS OVER! INSPIRED BY THE MUSIC OF JOHN & YOKO – Dave Mullins and Brad Booker
Unfortunately I was only able to find one of these films to watch so I can’t use my own thoughts too much here. From what I have read online War is Over! has the biggest backing being produced by Yoko and Sean Ono Lennon and the animation being done by Weta FX, known for Avatar. Many people, myself included still mourn John Lennon and he was especially well loved in America so I think this has a good chance. The theme of the film I saw, Ninety-Five Senses was powerful but it was not a relatable story with the main character having committed a crime out of frustration.
My prediction is War is Over! Inspired by the music of John & Yoko – Dave Mullins and Brad Booker
LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
THE AFTER – Misan Harriman and Nicky Bentham
INVINCIBLE – Vincent René-Lortie and Samuel Caron
KNIGHT OF FORTUNE – Lasse Lyskjær Noer and Christian Norlyk
RED, WHITE AND BLUE – Nazrin Choudhury and Sara McFarlane
THE WONDERFUL STORY OF HENRY SUGAR – Wes Anderson and Steven Rales
I have seen most of these short films and all have interesting stories. I thought The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar was entertaining and Wes Anderson is certainly a great storyteller but its message was not as powerful or emotive as the other films. I think The After was very well-produced and has the power of Netflix behind it; Red White and Blue had the most evocative story I think and was a topic that is being hotly debated in America right now. Invincible wasn’t in English and seemed like a personal story rather than one that will appeal to everyone.
My prediction is The After – Misan Harriman and Nicky Bentham
SOUND
THE CREATOR – Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic
MAESTRO – Steven A. Morrow, Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – DEAD RECKONING PART ONE – Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor
OPPENHEIMER – Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo and Kevin O’Connell
THE ZONE OF INTEREST – Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn
From what I have read Oppenheimer is leading the charge for the Sound category. It has won awards at its own industry ceremonies and the people involved have all been highly commended in past projects. I personally thought The Creator had great sound in the film and combined with the VFX and other elements it truly expressed the vastness yet familial intimacy of the film. Top Gun featuring Tom Cruise was a winner last year so his involvement in Mission Impossible could secure another win.
My prediction is Oppenheimer – Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo and Kevin O’Connell
VISUAL EFFECTS
THE CREATOR – Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts and Neil Corbould
GODZILLA MINUS ONE – Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima
GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 3 – Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams and Theo Bialek
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – DEAD RECKONING PART ONE – Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland and Neil Corbould
NAPOLEON – Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco and Neil Corbould
From what I have read online, the award could go to either The Creator or Godzilla Minus One. The Creator won big at the VES Awards taking home five prizes but Godzilla Minus One with just a team of 35 artists (allegedly) and the director acting as VFX Supervisor managed to make the most popular box office hit of the Godzilla franchise and the third-highest grossing foreign language film in the US. Poor Things won the BAFTA but with no Oscar nomination, anything could happen. Mission: Impossible had some great Visual Effects combined with the stunts to create some never before seen shots – memorably the motorbike-parachuting off the cliff. Guardians of the Galaxy had a lot of CGI characters including Rocket the Raccoon who had a bigger role this film in addition with all the green screens to create outer space.
I personally think The Creator deserves the award as after learning what their budget was, the film was such high quality and it featured some very exceptional futuristic technology that blended seamlessly with the Asian scenery.
My prediction is Godzilla Minus One – Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
AMERICAN FICTION – Written for the screen by Cord Jefferson
BARBIE – Written by Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach
OPPENHEIMER – Written for the screen by Christopher Nolan
POOR THINGS – Screenplay by Tony McNamara
THE ZONE OF INTEREST – Written by Jonathan Glazer
Personally I am not sure what existing story the Barbie screenplay was nominated for is but it looks like the two butting heads are American Fiction and Oppenheimer. American Fiction has won at the BAFTAs and Critics Choice Awards so far with Oppenheimer winning at lesser ceremonies but sweeping the board in other categories. With the Oscars splitting into two categories, Globe winner Anatomy of a Fall has been taken out of the running here. Personally I think the Barbie script was great and encompassed all the different parts of being a woman whilst also funny and serious.
My prediction is American Fiction – Cord Jefferson
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
ANATOMY OF A FALL – Screenplay – Justine Triet and Arthur Harari
THE HOLDOVERS – Written by David Hemingson
MAESTRO – Written by Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer
MAY DECEMBER – Screenplay by Samy Burch; Story by Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik
PAST LIVES – Written by Celine Song
I was only able to watch three of the films this year but the chatter I have seen and based on previous awards, the top contenders are Anatomy of a Fall and May December. Anatomy of a Fall has won big at the BAFTAs and the Golden Globes, both shows big indicators for who will take home the Academy Award. Whilst watching The Holdovers, I think the words were chosen carefully to curate the tone and emotion that the film wanted to portray whereas in Past Lives, the words were almost secondary to the emotions and were more regular. Maestro was a good script with many phrases referring to life but to me this film was brought alive by the acting and the music.
My prediction is Anatomy of a Fall – Justine Triet and Arthur Harari
That concludes my predictions for the Academy Awards 2024. I am planning to do a round up of which films were honoured this Awards Season so I will talk through the winners there.
Happy Watching,
Robyn
